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  March 11, 2022 2:32 AM EST

  All of the above pertains to the probability of nuclear war. To evaluate risk, we also need the severity. This has two parts. First are the details of the war itself. How many nuclear weapons are detonated? With what explosive yield? At which locations and altitudes? What other, non-nuclear attacks also occurred during the conduct of the war? These details determine the initial harm. The second part is what happens next. Are survivors able to maintain basic needs – food, clothing, shelter? How severe are secondary effects such as nuclear winter? Given all the various stressors, are survivors able to maintain any semblance of modern civilisation, or does civilisation collapse? If collapse does happen, do survivors or their descendants ever rebuild it? These factors determine the total, long-term harm caused by the nuclear war.

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